Baccarat is one of the biggest card games in the world, with a history dating back to Europe and spreading throughout Asia. It’s also now more accessible to American players thanks to a new wave of live dealer online casinos and high-limit VIP tables. Whether in sticky-floor California card rooms or tuxedo-laden Monaco casinos, the game attracts deep-pocketed high rollers ready to place large bets and hope for a lucky streak.
The game consists of two hands dealt by the dealer. The player’s and banker’s bets are then compared to see which hand has the closest total to nine. A winning bet pays out 1:1, minus a 5 percent commission. The house edge on the player’s bet is higher than that of the banker’s, but it’s still relatively favorable compared to other casino games.
During the course of a game, six decks of cards are shuffled together and arranged in a circle on an oval table. Each player is assigned a seat and begins the game by placing a bet to either the “player” or “banker.” The player’s and banker’s hands are then dealt following specific drawing rules, and the hand with the closest total to 9 wins. Bettors can also place wagers on a tie.
Although the house edge is relatively low, baccarat can still be profitable for players who understand the game’s basic rules and use strategies that reduce the risk of losing bets. A common strategy is to bet consistently on the Player or Banker, avoiding progressive betting systems that can lead to runaway losses during hot streaks. Another approach is to utilize a card-counting system, which can be employed for both the Banker and Player bets in order to minimize the house edge and maximize profits.
The present study is the first to quantitatively analyze baccarat gamblers’ adherence to the following trend strategy and their underlying beliefs about future outcomes using real casino data. Findings consistently showed that baccarat gamblers preferred to bet on the outcome of a past game with the same frequency as the previous one, irrespective of the length of the streak. This result suggests that baccarat gamblers are susceptible to the hot outcome fallacy, a type of gambling bias that occurs when individuals interpret small samples as reflecting properties of larger populations.
The preference for betting on past outcomes may be partly explained by the fact that baccarat is a fixed-odds game, unlike roulette or lotteries, in which the outcome is determined only after the bet has been placed. This feature of baccarat, combined with the law of small numbers, could explain why positive recency is observed in baccarat gamblers. However, the pronounced tendency to favor the same outcome after a streak of player or banker wins is less easily explained. It may reflect an expectation that the next outcome will balance the previous one (negative recency). In addition, the tendency to favor the same outcome after a long streak of the same outcomes is inconsistent with the results of previous studies showing that the opposite effect occurs in other gambling games.